That ATT iPhone in your friends hand cost him $1,729

I'm often wrong my Netflix post last year said that the stock markets reaction to Netflix was over played but the price is still $82.00. So given that logic Apple stock is $613 today so the stock will be $700 next year given my negative thoughts on their stock. I'm no professional.

How long can Apple maintain its profit margin. That an important point since if they have to start selling iPads and iPhones at lower. Lets compare the Galaxy Nexus for $349 to an iPhone 4S at $649 (nearly double the price.)

Hey you say I only paid $199 for that phone, guess again if you compare prepaid phone plans $50 unlimited to contract plans $120.00 with a two year commitment. So that a $70 dollar difference over 24 months (probably a lot less on family or legacy contracts). So if we factor in prepaid + full priced phone verses discount phone + 24month contract.

T-Mobile unlimited prepaid 24 months ($1,200) + Google Nexus from the Play store ($349.00) = Total of $1,549

At&t Unlimited + texting + 3G data ($120*24 = $2880) + Discount Iphone 4S ($199) = Total of $3,079

So for basically the same service unless you live in an area not covered by t-mobile at the end of two years you paid an extra $1,530 dollars for that iPhone.

But you may say that you don't have to go with an unlimited package true but you can get a $30 dollar plan verse may be $80 for a lower rate plan. Its a wash.

But the Iphone is such a better experience that Android. True if you compare Ginger Bread to IOS 4. But its a wash with Jelly Bean and IOS 6.

The App store is better at Apple than Google's Play store. Can Apple hold that $649 price point. May be?

Second given that the proposed Apple Ipad Mini will hurt sales of the Ipad with a much lower profit margin. Given a Nexus 7 ($199) verses a Ipad mini ($299). The Ipad profit margin must be higher than a iPad mini.

Given 55 million iphones and 22 million Ipads sold last year if Apple has to lower profit by $50 per device, that is $3.85 Billion in lost profit. If Apple has to lower the price $100 per device that's $7 Billion. To hurt Apple all that Google has to do is sell at cost and drive down Apples margin.

The patent war may sound stupid and Apple has all the cards with the its market dominance. Google has a lot less to lose than Apple since it makes money on a device no matter who sells it. Apple stock reminds me of 2005 house prices, they may continue to rise for the next few years but 2015 may be different.