2012 is going to be interesting in the tablet space

Like just about everybody else I reading Steve Jobs Biography. That's why my blog posts have been so focused on him in the last month. The book gives a good insight to the tablet wars and a lot of what makes the Ipad such a success and the various Android tablets such a failure. What is interesting is that the Ipad pre-dated the iphone and that the iphone success as a user interface was from Apple's prior development of the Ipad. I'm probably the only person in the Western world who does not have an Ipad or used one much. This means that the IPad has about a 3 year development lead over Andriod 2002 verses 2005. Honeycomb was very pretty but not that usable, it was rushed to market. I had a hacked version on my Nook for a while and it was a step in the right direction. Most of the Android tablets used a 2.X versions designed for cell phones because Homecomb was not ready for primetime. I've never been a fan of the Java VM which is at the Androids core. So why is it such a success? The carrier/handset makers seem to be trying to customize it to death literally. It's interesting the market for custom roms that set the interface back to a standard android UX. I've heard that ICS has a much more polished UX but will we ever get to see it given the handset manufactures tinkering. CM9 where are you. Given all this why is Android a success two words "OPEN", "APPS". The world needed an OS to battle IOS and it was free. This created a critical mass for APPS as it was adopted. This makes it a success. The Iphone is out of the reach of a lot of people especially in the 3rd world. Android will run on an inexpensive ARM processor. Apple wants 100% mark up. They controlled the supply chain so they could hold up the prices. They also had the best SOC (system on a chip) in their own customer A processor. Their war with Samsung will free up that manufacturer to supply chips to 3rd parties and multiple ARM SOC at a low price will be available this year. The Android UX is improving with ICS. Apple needs to knock the Iphone 5/Ipad 3 out of the park if it want that three year development lead to continue. Ask your 10 year old if he wants a Kindle Fire or an Ipod touch. Most will say the fire a 7" screen verses a 3.5" to watch netflix or play games on. Remember they are the same price and they have a large installed APP base. Though people complain about the ergonomics of the Fire, it is very usable and probably by the time Amazon ships version 2.0 of the OS. Apple has iTunes but Android has spotify which is just as good as iTunes. I own a Nook which has evolved a lot of since last year. I restored the nook color to a stock ROM last weekend version 1.4.1 is a very usable UX. Everybody has counted out Microsoft. They took alot of false starts in the mid 2000's. Windows 8 and surface show a huge history that microsoft has had with touch interfaces. What is interesting is that the press has given Microsoft a lot of grief about how slow to market but Windows 8 will be a huge introduction to a lot of people for the Metro interface which works well and is very usable. Microsoft are not going to just give up like they did with the Zune, they bet the farm on Metro with Windows 8. What is interesting is that Apple focus on legal methods to kill Android. It was Steve's dying wish to sue Android(Google) out of existence or is Apple concerned that they cannot evolve the Ipad faster than the competition. It going an interesting year in 2012.

The post PC may not be a tablet at least in the 3rd world

A tablet is a wonderful device for the rich but I don't see it being the post PC device of the third world and that is where I see the growth in the future. I just saw a fascinating device called the Raspberry Pi and this is probably the PC of the next century. Flat panel displays are getting moderately inexpensive. When I was in Walmart on black friday the device sold was a 32" flat panel for $188. We are seeing computer monitors with HDMI inputs for $80. These will be the televisions for third world in the next 10 years. You can now create a cheap internet device for $25 dollars that can run a full version of linux with web browser and keyboard/mouse. A cloud based computer world will hook up to these devices to provide power to just about anybody. If you want to see what one of these devices look like just review a ROKU 2, a device the size of a hockey puck that has a very power micro-controller, memory, MicroSD, Wifi, USB and HDMI. You can pick up a cheap USB keyboard & mouse and HDMI cable for less than $8. It makes a $300 chrome book look like a joke.

I feel so sorry for you poor PC user. I've got a Mac.

Have you ever got the look or comment from an Apple user "I feel so sorry for you poor PC user. I've got a Mac and its wonderful". I'm not an average user so don't expect this to be an average experience. When I see a Mac user what goes through my mind is "I feel so sorry for you poor Mac user. I've got a PC and its wonderful.". Notice I did not say a Microsoft PC, because that's just a small part of it. Linux is a great OS too. OK first off Mac's are beautifully designed, easy too use and give a very cool impression. But to me that a lot like telling a Builder to use a current generation VW bug. It may get the average user from A to B but it does not cut it for my needs for hauling supplies and customizations. I build my own PC, change out operating systems and hardware parts every few months. This is enough for Steve Job to turn in his grave, he wanted to control the end user to his view of the world. That was great for a user that wants a web browser, spreadsheet and word processor (possibly video editing) with little worry over virus and maintenance for three years and can drop over $1,000 every three years. Pixar does not use Apple computers to render its movies, Apples backend servers may well be a Windows Azure cloud solution. I've heard it said that's a very first world view point about a certain situation. I feel that very close to people talking about Apple. The Apple store may be doing very well in Shanghai but in rural China an Apple Store is not going to be appropriate.

Siri may not have a long lead time

THe Apple 4S major roll out was a new voice activated service called Siri. If you remove Siri from the 4S you will see very little additional information mainly based on the faster processor and better camera. A lot of people have indicated that Siri will kill Google by bypassing the search engine. I expect Google to release a competitor for Android with the next major version release. Siri basically has a few main parts. 1) Speech recognition 2) An API access to a few key IOS application 3) A natural language search engine 4) A.I component that interprets the request. 5) A text to speech capability. So lets see what Google is not missing 1) Speech recognition Google chrome has had it for months. 2) An API access to applications, you know they have them. 5) Text to speech has been in the Android phone for quite a while. So that leaves them missing a natural language search engine. They are a search company primarily and they have extensive experience with translation software. I expect that a new meta language of Android API commands is being created to match a large number of queries and feed into that translation engine. There is little difference between translating English to French than English to API commands. Both required an understand of natural language and a model of a problem domain. So Google just needs to get a bunch of guys creating Android API scripts for all those features that are needed and then creating the English equivalent for their statistical engine to cross reference. this solves problems 3 & 4. Google has an advantage here unlike Apple that had to have a large number of people build create the mappings. Google already has the mappings and hundred of millions of users updating the knowledge base on an hourly basis. They can use their own search engine to provide the natural language learning with the results selection of the user. So unless Google is totally asleep at the wheel expect them to generate a Siri kill in less than a year.