Why the fiscal cliff is coming and there is no stopping the insanity

Why the fiscal cliff is coming and there is no stopping the insanity.

When democracy fails why not be surprised when politicians bend to the will of those holding the money purse rather than what the voters actually want. Democracy has nothing to do with congress there are two primary reasons 1) Congressional redistricting and 2) Voter suppression.

Recently I had a horrible time getting my sons first learners permit, it took three attempts to get him a valid picture id. Why the strange difficulty in getting a valid picture id, the politicians will tell you preventing identity theft (my sons US passport was not good enough). May be but if you are somebody who does not own a home, get electrical bills etc then your a likely to be poor and vote democratic. Making it hard to get a picture ID with the new voter laws means to suppress the vote.

Both partiers do it but the recent congressional redistricting maps if you seem them on a map looks like a 2 year olds scribble. No sane person would draw a map like that but the districts a rigged into concentrate voters on one party and spread the other parties voters out. Simple to create safe seats for a politician so he does not have to worry about the main vote just the primary.

The primary is how the democracy falls apart since only the real passonate conservatives or liberals tend to vote. So by the time the main election comes along the race is already decided. People in congress are not worried about their electorate but the people who vote in the primaries which is where the fiscal cliff comes into play. The people on the sides in the debate would rather go over the fiscal cliff due to dogma than be rational. So don't be surprised if come January 1st we go right over that cliff.

Even if we don't it not because of the will of the people but maybe in just enough congressional districts democracy still works.

Is Javascript the English Language of the computer world

Is Javascript the English Language of the computer world

English is an ugly language, it roots are in multiple countries,people to study languages prefer French. So why is English much more dominate than french (a lot of people in France might disagree.) In the end the answer is probably a mixture of politics, power and flexibility. The United States and Commonwealth two major powers across the world for the last several hundred years use it as their primary language. Its flexible in evolving rather than say French which has its government are trying keep pure. Its a language that you can use across the world since in is the second language for a lot of people. It make for a default communication.

So is Javascript the new English of the computer world. I'd say yes because it works everywhere. It didn't, it still have a hundreds of different variants based upon where it is used and that keeps evolving. But thanks to JQuery it will work across most browsers.

How to fix windows 8 on the desktop.

The big problem for windows 8 is desktops users hate it. We Just try to buy a touch base monitor for your windows 8 desktop and even if you have one it basically clumsy. Microsoft has a simple solution for the windows 8 desktop experience it called Kinect.

If you could implement the interface using the kinect style web cam that tracks you finger movement. If you could simply raise your finger (not your middle one) from your keyboard and activate the touch interface. Whats nice about this is it cheap. The kinect cost less then $50 to manufacture much less than touch screen.

The world is changing faster than I can believe

I'm a geek in remember in 1980 sitting in high school reading a book on Microprocessors. I was amazing but it was hard to get information back then. I was on holiday in San Francisco and they had books that would not be in UK stores for a few years. I was lucky to have access (thanks Mother and Father).

Now that's all changed with the internet. Youtube, Pluralsight, Lynda and google has changed all that. I feel that i'm in a wind storm of information and its hard to keep up. If you need to learn anything it is a keyword away and a 5 minute video.

It's scary how much you need to learn and thrilling too learn it.

Inspiration vs plagiarism

Could not resit a little note on the Apple vs Samsung trial. But the real issue is when does Inspiration from a third party become plagiarism. That a tough question because something similar is definitely allowed.

Function verses style is the problem here especially when the style chosen is minimalist. Clearly logos and brands are off limits but a flat touch screen with a bezel clearly points to function and there is plenty of prior art.

An area where Samsung probably was wrong was the phone icon. Apple is compulsive about art. I once saw a 60 minute video on designing app icons. They are compulsive about look and feel. Green on white phone icon looked to me like a copy.

Reality distortion field at Apple may have finally took over. Your in trouble when you start to believe your own bullshit. They truly believe that they created the iPhone from scratch, that Palm and Microsoft has nothing to do with ideas and prior art. Given how much Palm defined this field Apple should just sign over the company to HP in my humble opinion since it clearly defined the market of truly portable devices.

Apple certainly made an excellent device but they used ideas and technology from a lot of different companies. Apple has ensured that it will spend the next ten years in court. They can probably create a temporary competitive advantage doing so. But somebody is busily working away to create the next advancement and it probably a small company.

When that product hits Apple better be very careful about their inspirational because they may just loose the farm if they are locked out of that product idea.

HP Please sue Apple

It's my belief that Apple got most of their inspiration for the Ipod Touch from the PalmOne Tungsten T5.

The iPhone clearly got its inspiration from the ipod touch. The Ipod touch looks to me so much like a T5. The touch screen. The home button. But the T5 pre-dated the Ipod by over three years.

If Apple wins the suit over Samsung then HP got a hell of a case.

A little more Apple bashing

So you committed to spend $1700+ on that Apple 4s here's another ugly little secret. It probably will be worthless in less than three years. Apple has ugly habit of ending life of the their products. They drop support very rapidly meaning that you can't upgrade your App and your OS often after just three years. That window might be even smaller if you choose to get a IPhone 3GS at the lower price.

OK I admit that most Android owners are stuck on Gingerbread but the App store is full of apps that work with much older version of the OS. Most of the applications in the iTunes store required the most up to date version of the software.

There is another problem is that your phone might not even last three years. The battery if it gives out is very expensive to replace. Apple glues together it hardware meaning it is nearly impossible replace components that go bad.

So not are you being over charged for a phone that has a 200% sales profit and a 800% profit if you include the cell contract, they make sure you have replace it within a few years.

It reminds me a lot of the American auto manufactures in the 80's obsoleting cars after a few years. They paid for that dearly withing other taking their lunch after a people got upset for being taken for a ride.

That ATT iPhone in your friends hand cost him $1,729

I'm often wrong my Netflix post last year said that the stock markets reaction to Netflix was over played but the price is still $82.00. So given that logic Apple stock is $613 today so the stock will be $700 next year given my negative thoughts on their stock. I'm no professional.

How long can Apple maintain its profit margin. That an important point since if they have to start selling iPads and iPhones at lower. Lets compare the Galaxy Nexus for $349 to an iPhone 4S at $649 (nearly double the price.)

Hey you say I only paid $199 for that phone, guess again if you compare prepaid phone plans $50 unlimited to contract plans $120.00 with a two year commitment. So that a $70 dollar difference over 24 months (probably a lot less on family or legacy contracts). So if we factor in prepaid + full priced phone verses discount phone + 24month contract.

T-Mobile unlimited prepaid 24 months ($1,200) + Google Nexus from the Play store ($349.00) = Total of $1,549

At&t Unlimited + texting + 3G data ($120*24 = $2880) + Discount Iphone 4S ($199) = Total of $3,079

So for basically the same service unless you live in an area not covered by t-mobile at the end of two years you paid an extra $1,530 dollars for that iPhone.

But you may say that you don't have to go with an unlimited package true but you can get a $30 dollar plan verse may be $80 for a lower rate plan. Its a wash.

But the Iphone is such a better experience that Android. True if you compare Ginger Bread to IOS 4. But its a wash with Jelly Bean and IOS 6.

The App store is better at Apple than Google's Play store. Can Apple hold that $649 price point. May be?

Second given that the proposed Apple Ipad Mini will hurt sales of the Ipad with a much lower profit margin. Given a Nexus 7 ($199) verses a Ipad mini ($299). The Ipad profit margin must be higher than a iPad mini.

Given 55 million iphones and 22 million Ipads sold last year if Apple has to lower profit by $50 per device, that is $3.85 Billion in lost profit. If Apple has to lower the price $100 per device that's $7 Billion. To hurt Apple all that Google has to do is sell at cost and drive down Apples margin.

The patent war may sound stupid and Apple has all the cards with the its market dominance. Google has a lot less to lose than Apple since it makes money on a device no matter who sells it. Apple stock reminds me of 2005 house prices, they may continue to rise for the next few years but 2015 may be different.

What will be the next generation of TV.

I was listening to the latest episode of web ahead talking about Web based TV's. Even the XBOX is getting a web browser later this year. I think we are missing the point of what a TV is about here. The television is a shared experience. Even when we are using a console we are sharing the experience over the internet.

Look at a family watching TV. If somebody up and changes the channel while you are in the middle of a show. TV watching is not web surfing. The successful next generation devices are content streamers not browsers. That is because that is how a big TV is used.

Unless your the only person in the room and you using your TV as a computer monitor and that's a strange experience. Surfing the web is a personal activity like reading a book while TV is like watching a play a group activity.

Windows 8 is the New Coke of the IT industry

Geeks should be geeky

Windows 8 Release candidate is a large step backward from the consumer preview which in many ways was a step backward from the developer preview. Windows 8 is Microsoft trying to out UI Apple in the UX(user experience) and they totally failed. Think of a geek guy in high school trying to be cool. The kid who got straight A's but no girl would look at, well I've always though Microsoft as kind of that guy. So one day he wants to be cool but he can't carry it off. The cool clothes don't fit right, the $100 haircut doesn't fit his face and he just doesn't walk cool. Windows 8 release candidate is that, the Metro interface hides all the good windows features while being awkward to use of you have more than a handful of icons. They've removed all the features you like remote desktop and media center. Trying to find the calculator, notepad and control panel is just plain difficult. I've been using Windows 8 for 10 months so its not needing to learn the interface.

For all the bad press Microsoft products work well in real business and getting things done. Apple may be the darling of the media industry but if the iphone/ipad had a bad day then they would be in a world of hurt. They are a one trick pony IOS, they've put the Mac on the back burner to focus on Mobile. It's paying huge for them. Microsoft wants some of that cash Apple is getting for IOS. Even when Windows had a bad day (Vista) Microsoft kept making money. Any IT manager will NEVER want windows 8 in their organization.

Hopefully Microsoft business customers (like the principle of the geeky guy in high school), pull Microsoft aside and explain trying to be something your not is a bad idea. Even Apple is smart enough to know that IOS cannot be OSX, they are different products.

Javascript

I've spent the last few months playing with Javascript and it changed a lot since I last used it. OK Javascript has not really changed except the browsers have got a lot better. The libraries have made all the differences.

Microsoft and Adobe who by the nature of my skill base is whose tools I tend to use a lot have chosen in their wisdom to kill Silverlight and Flash in Favor of HTML5. You may argue that Flash(or Silverlight) is far from dead . That is true but given that the mobile editions of both products have been discontinued it basically makes them dead in most large organizations.

So that leaves HTML5/Javascript/CSS and since I'm at heart a programmer I'm focusing on Javascript. I've spent the last few months reviewing the blog/docs/tutorials and Javascript has developed. Don't be fooled I still believe that Javascript is a horrid language but I get the feeling most other people agree with me.

Give a developer a problem and like an Engineer he will try and make a pile of scrap metal into a beautiful machine. That is what the developers of languages such as JQuery, Knockout, backbone, node and a million others decided to do. They take the pile of $*** that Javascript and various legacy browser and made them usable.

Like most people I got a particular darling technology I'm focusing on and that is JQuery Mobile. Take a look at the demo pages it amazing.

Been gone try to learn new stuff

I've been busy at work so I have not been posting. Kind of busy learning jquery, jquery mobile, phonegap and mvc3. Jquery makes javascript livable with.

The Humancentipad

South Park can be very blue but if often hits at the core of many things. Last year before Steve Jobs died it had a hilarious show in which one of south parks main characters was taped between two other unfortunate apple users because they failed to read the ULA (that legal notice you click so Apple will let you use its products). ULA are usually very long, not written in plain English and nobody reads them. One of the things Apple likes to do is hire lawyers. I heard rumors they have their own building in the Apple campus because there are so many of them.

Steve Jobs reportedly said he would spend his last dime suing Google out of existence. Steve Jobs may be dead but just like in the book DEAMON about a software pioneer who used a system to manipulate the world after his death. Steve Jobs may have unleashed his own Daemon in the form of an army of lawyers in Apple to make all our lives hell. It seems sad that a computer company need lawyers more than engineers.

Not Single Computer Market

Apple wants you to believe the PC is dead. Apple has great marketing and sales abilities but just because somebody tell you something it is not true. When a salesman keep hammering a point then you know he is bending the truth or just plain lying. Does an Ipad replace a PC, yes for certain functions such as browsing the internet casually, viewing videos and casual data entry. If you go into any office you will see desktops and laptops. Students working on term papers are using laptops. Serious work does not happen on a tablet. I have four monitors on my desktop providing me with increasable productivity gains, a laptop would not be able to do that.

The PC is not dead but it is evolving. Windows 8 is proof of that. Apple may have some land in Florida it wants you to buy its a little wet but its very expensive that why they are so profitable. I have a very nice rooted nook, it a lot cheaper than an Ipad, has full access to android market place. Its seven inch screen is perfect for bed. There are rumours that apple will introduce a eight inch tablet to compete with the Amazon fire. Is Apple finally seeing that the market does have competition.

History repeats itself

I usually talk about technology on this Blog, but today I'm going to the Economy but it has direct links to technology. The second world war had its start in the financial crash of the late twenties. The Nazi party grew out of the destruction of the German economy in the great depression. A lot of angry people and some terrible people (Nazis) who used it to blame the rich aka the Jewish population in Germany. They were a false target since many rich Germans were not Jewish and many Jewish Europeans were very poor.

America did a much better way of handling the thirties through huge social projects. This gave its population a chance to vent its anger with a job and a way forward. Britain too had social programs. We saw the formation of Unions to balance the power of Gilded Age super barons.

We are now in the biggest recession since the thirties and we are seeing some of the same tensions in Europe and the United States. The problems in Greece are similar to Germany in the thirties. There are some very different causes this time round though key similarity is that there is rising disparity between the super rich and the middle class. Financial obligations that people are refusing to withstand.

Unions are ineffective in a Globalized economy and they have hurt themselves with unrealistic work practices and demands on business in global market. Unions are pretty much regulated to service and public sector industries that are not subject to globalization (though we are seeing outsourcing).

We are seeing some of the same tensions between the super rich and a middle class that is seeing economic erosion of wages. Financial Companies and Conservatives have budded up with religion to control a large portion of the US heart land minds and wills. Built huge propaganda machines (Fox News and talk radio) to push their agenda.

In Europe they have a different problem in they've created huge social support benefits that they cannot afford. As the money dries up the coffers of European government the social programs will suffer. A large group who have become dependent upon government benefits will riot as they have in Greece as those funds disappear.

At the heart of these problems is globalization and the erosion of the middle class. But rather than meet at the middle we see politicians using class warfare on both side to further divide the populous. It may seem easier for politicians to blame somebody else than to address the true problems.

We discourage our politicians from making hard decisions because elections are less about performance but rather than getting elected through money (pathetic attack advertisements). The problem is that if we don't address the issues at the center of the problem and deffer from class warfare to a joint solution. The problems will mount and more people will get hurt.

So what technology got to do with this, in many ways it the cause, globalization has its heart in technology, companies can downsize because of increased automation. But technology can also be the solution through the exchange of information, more efficient food distribution and information/knowledge sharing.

The long tail, bell curve edge

I realized at school that I was not in the highest part of the social bell curve I was in the part where it tapers off. My tastes are very geeky, but I've often felt that I could see trends a little ahead of the curve. I was the first student in my high school with a computer, I was the first person in my office with a DVR, the first person in my office with a ROKU.

So when I read an article on the New York Times yesterday that people under 35 are watching less cable/broadcast TV and people older than 35 are watching more. It surprised me. A few years ago I stopped watching TV except when I was spending time with my wife. I'm a lot older than 35. Broadcast/cable TV even a DVR just seems like such an inefficient way to get what I wanted to watch. My viewing experience is much more like going into a library where I choose what I want when I want it rather than the old broadcast model where you choose.

So the question for broadcasters is am I an outlier or am I ahead of the curve. In ten years will television view drop of 50% or will a small part of the population stop watching cable.

Only time will tell. Or is Nielsen data used to source the NY times article not completely factual. Is the TV on and we are really doing something else and the new metric for TV watching be not that the TV is on but what percentage of the time are we focused on it.

Microsoft should buy Barnes & Noble

Barnes & Noble would be a perfect purchase for Microsoft. You may think I'm crazy but I'm not there are a lot of good synergies here and a few down sides.

• 1) It would put a presences for Microsoft in stores across the country. They don't have to sell PC but support staff and product information would be added overnight across the country.
• 2) The next nook could run Windows 8. Amazon Fire in taking over the low end tablet market. The Nook install base would make a perfect in road into the low end tablet market for windows 8.
• 3) Barnes & Noble need a savior. They just keep loosing money.

The Megaupload take down win or lose?

The timing of the mega upload servers take down was interesting but had nothing to do with SOPA. It was clearly political, the administration has a lot of friends who help him the creation content arena. They are not very happy with his recent SOPA position so the Mega-Upload take down should appease them. Mega Upload take down had nothing to do with SOPA, it was much more to do with the DMCA (since the servers and domain names where under US locations). It comes down to the simple fact that the government believes that mega upload breached the safe harbor provision by encouraging illegal uploads with financial incentives to pirates. Also that they were not swift enough/limited on take downs. This is up to a jury who probably don't have any understanding of technology. Getting 12 people to buy into this is going to be hard.

How different youtube was in its early days to megaupload today is an interesting question. Since this is a criminal prosecution not a civil, the level of guilt they need to prove is a lot higher. They may even not even win extradition from New Zealand given how weak their case seems. But Mega upload will be down for several years given the extradition and then the time for a criminal trial. This is decades in internet terms, meaning Mega Upload is history in any true sense of the word. Expect a NewMegaUpload to be online in less than a month by a proxy third party. Thus does not stop the multitude of other virtual hard drive sites. Given how easy it is to create and share a virtual hard drive on a multitude of current servers.

Aka the government just dropped a 500 lb bomb on mega upload but the pirates have already moved on to another site and legitimate users of Megaupload lost their files. So the only people who are happy about this are the content creators and the administration. Mega uploads fate will not be decided until after the election in the fall.

So a political win, but in the actual war on piracy it effect will be negligible.

Asymmetrical Warfare aka SOPA

Since everybody is talking about SOPA today and what a bad idea it is. They are right it reminds me of the carpet bombing of Vietnam. That sounds totally off the wall but piracy is very much like Asymmetrical Warfare a are very large well funded in-trenched industry verses a small agile opponent. Let's say that the film industry gets their way and gets to take a web site down and block it immediately. A little like bombing the hell out of a Viet Cong village with a bunch of 500 pound bombs (Aka $500 an hour lawyers). The Viet Cong are probably already deep in a cave with their weapons and you just killed a bunch of villagers who are stuck in the middle (the legitimate users of the site). The surviving villages now really hate you and join the Viet Cong (the users of the web site).

The US military had to adjust their tactics in Iraq to fight an asymmetrical, Hollywood has to as well, Spotify and Netflix/Crackle are much better weapons. Also use intelligence to identify the key players in Piracy and take them out (individuals behind the web sites).

The great CES non event

What if you held a disco and nobody played any music

Like any true geek I've been following CES but it been quiet. Many sources have pointed out that large companies now release new products outside these shows because they can better manage the news and there is less noise outside the event time. Consumer electronics is also consolidating so less small players. The cost to do anything is outside the ability of any company except a huge multi-national.

Had Microsoft planned a major announcement but the product fell through? Sources (Reuters) indicate that Microsoft had planned to release a Netflix competitor based off the Hulu model. The article indicates that cable companies forced the content providers to kill the idea using a high price. It's a lot like the record industry before itunes. Given that the cable companies have cut off programming to the internet companies like Netflix, YouTube etc have started to develop their own programming. I hear that HBO is in a panic over house of cards.

I compare $16 for Hulu and Netflix and $60 for a cable subscription. Somebody has to loose money if I switch over. Remember that most cable companies are vertically integrated, they share their programming with other cable companies (usually there is only one cable provider per area) but they are not going to allow competition. They have already been burned by Satellite (DirectTv/Dish) eating into their viewership and Telco's starting their own services but each has bundled programming.

Though it would be easy for a modern cable company to sell alacart since they now digitally encrypt all the channels except for OTA channels. They have fought the idea saying it is cheaper to bundle. Given that I'm forced to pay for expensive channels like ESPN, NFL, Fox News, Fox sports & Disney I highly doubt if my package would be sixty dollars. It reminds me that I had to buy an Album rather than a single before itunes.

If a company as large as Microsoft cannot break into this industry clearly market forces have broken down and the FCC needs to intervene.

Web OS vs Microsoft Tablet

A lot of people have given Microsoft criticism for their slow response to the iPad. But today the New York Times had a very interesting article on WebOS and it total failures. Microsoft has bet the the next three years on Windows 8 and its tablet features, but it has not rushed its development environment and application base like WebOS. When I pulled up the first Javascript application in the Windows 8 developer preview it had the same problems but Microsoft has bet big with Metro. With Windows 8 you get a unified UX from a PC, tablet and phone. Can Microsoft succeed where HP failed.

Choosing a skill set when some large tech companies survive and other die

The Problem

Anybody who works in the tech industry must invest his time in learning a technology. This is quite a gamble since technology is usually tied to a company (IBM) or a product (Linux). The profitable technology right now is IOS. If you can use Xcode on a mac you can easily find a job paying a good salary.

Choosing a company or a technology is not simple. The past is littered with defunct (or shadows of their former self's) IT companies Sun, DEC, Data General, Burroughs, Honeywell, Compaq, the list is endless. If you believe Apples hype then you can add Microsoft to that list. Though Apple should know better since they are a huge customer of Microsoft's services.

IOS looks good now and for a few years but a so did RIM/Blackberry a few years ago and Palm before them. Apple product line up has a very short lifespan of 3 years. Apple must have a hit ratio of 0.4 on product launches each year to keep their enviable 100% profit margin.

Its funny but IBM looks good, big companies are tied to their legacy systems like a Heroin addict. You can still do very well with COBOL/JCL which I thought was old fashioned 30 years ago (a Millennium in IT years).

The problem with Microsoft product like web page designers is that every kid with a college class thinks they can do it and so do a bunch of employers. It keeps salaries down and cheapens the skill set with a bunch of bad code. (The same can be said of PHP)

Java is still doing well even after the death of Sun its still lives on in the enterprise market and mobile markets.

I think the solution should be SQL, that a funny thing to say but its hard to code, few do it well and a well coded stored procedure can do amazing things. Its a language used on all platforms and companies from a smart phone to a IBM mainframe. Though their are many different flavors they are all pretty standard.

The solution is learn SQL and be good at it.