2012 is going to be interesting in the tablet space

Like just about everybody else I reading Steve Jobs Biography. That's why my blog posts have been so focused on him in the last month. The book gives a good insight to the tablet wars and a lot of what makes the Ipad such a success and the various Android tablets such a failure. What is interesting is that the Ipad pre-dated the iphone and that the iphone success as a user interface was from Apple's prior development of the Ipad. I'm probably the only person in the Western world who does not have an Ipad or used one much. This means that the IPad has about a 3 year development lead over Andriod 2002 verses 2005. Honeycomb was very pretty but not that usable, it was rushed to market. I had a hacked version on my Nook for a while and it was a step in the right direction. Most of the Android tablets used a 2.X versions designed for cell phones because Homecomb was not ready for primetime. I've never been a fan of the Java VM which is at the Androids core. So why is it such a success? The carrier/handset makers seem to be trying to customize it to death literally. It's interesting the market for custom roms that set the interface back to a standard android UX. I've heard that ICS has a much more polished UX but will we ever get to see it given the handset manufactures tinkering. CM9 where are you. Given all this why is Android a success two words "OPEN", "APPS". The world needed an OS to battle IOS and it was free. This created a critical mass for APPS as it was adopted. This makes it a success. The Iphone is out of the reach of a lot of people especially in the 3rd world. Android will run on an inexpensive ARM processor. Apple wants 100% mark up. They controlled the supply chain so they could hold up the prices. They also had the best SOC (system on a chip) in their own customer A processor. Their war with Samsung will free up that manufacturer to supply chips to 3rd parties and multiple ARM SOC at a low price will be available this year. The Android UX is improving with ICS. Apple needs to knock the Iphone 5/Ipad 3 out of the park if it want that three year development lead to continue. Ask your 10 year old if he wants a Kindle Fire or an Ipod touch. Most will say the fire a 7" screen verses a 3.5" to watch netflix or play games on. Remember they are the same price and they have a large installed APP base. Though people complain about the ergonomics of the Fire, it is very usable and probably by the time Amazon ships version 2.0 of the OS. Apple has iTunes but Android has spotify which is just as good as iTunes. I own a Nook which has evolved a lot of since last year. I restored the nook color to a stock ROM last weekend version 1.4.1 is a very usable UX. Everybody has counted out Microsoft. They took alot of false starts in the mid 2000's. Windows 8 and surface show a huge history that microsoft has had with touch interfaces. What is interesting is that the press has given Microsoft a lot of grief about how slow to market but Windows 8 will be a huge introduction to a lot of people for the Metro interface which works well and is very usable. Microsoft are not going to just give up like they did with the Zune, they bet the farm on Metro with Windows 8. What is interesting is that Apple focus on legal methods to kill Android. It was Steve's dying wish to sue Android(Google) out of existence or is Apple concerned that they cannot evolve the Ipad faster than the competition. It going an interesting year in 2012.

The post PC may not be a tablet at least in the 3rd world

A tablet is a wonderful device for the rich but I don't see it being the post PC device of the third world and that is where I see the growth in the future. I just saw a fascinating device called the Raspberry Pi and this is probably the PC of the next century. Flat panel displays are getting moderately inexpensive. When I was in Walmart on black friday the device sold was a 32" flat panel for $188. We are seeing computer monitors with HDMI inputs for $80. These will be the televisions for third world in the next 10 years. You can now create a cheap internet device for $25 dollars that can run a full version of linux with web browser and keyboard/mouse. A cloud based computer world will hook up to these devices to provide power to just about anybody. If you want to see what one of these devices look like just review a ROKU 2, a device the size of a hockey puck that has a very power micro-controller, memory, MicroSD, Wifi, USB and HDMI. You can pick up a cheap USB keyboard & mouse and HDMI cable for less than $8. It makes a $300 chrome book look like a joke.

I feel so sorry for you poor PC user. I've got a Mac.

Have you ever got the look or comment from an Apple user "I feel so sorry for you poor PC user. I've got a Mac and its wonderful". I'm not an average user so don't expect this to be an average experience. When I see a Mac user what goes through my mind is "I feel so sorry for you poor Mac user. I've got a PC and its wonderful.". Notice I did not say a Microsoft PC, because that's just a small part of it. Linux is a great OS too. OK first off Mac's are beautifully designed, easy too use and give a very cool impression. But to me that a lot like telling a Builder to use a current generation VW bug. It may get the average user from A to B but it does not cut it for my needs for hauling supplies and customizations. I build my own PC, change out operating systems and hardware parts every few months. This is enough for Steve Job to turn in his grave, he wanted to control the end user to his view of the world. That was great for a user that wants a web browser, spreadsheet and word processor (possibly video editing) with little worry over virus and maintenance for three years and can drop over $1,000 every three years. Pixar does not use Apple computers to render its movies, Apples backend servers may well be a Windows Azure cloud solution. I've heard it said that's a very first world view point about a certain situation. I feel that very close to people talking about Apple. The Apple store may be doing very well in Shanghai but in rural China an Apple Store is not going to be appropriate.

Siri may not have a long lead time

THe Apple 4S major roll out was a new voice activated service called Siri. If you remove Siri from the 4S you will see very little additional information mainly based on the faster processor and better camera. A lot of people have indicated that Siri will kill Google by bypassing the search engine. I expect Google to release a competitor for Android with the next major version release. Siri basically has a few main parts. 1) Speech recognition 2) An API access to a few key IOS application 3) A natural language search engine 4) A.I component that interprets the request. 5) A text to speech capability. So lets see what Google is not missing 1) Speech recognition Google chrome has had it for months. 2) An API access to applications, you know they have them. 5) Text to speech has been in the Android phone for quite a while. So that leaves them missing a natural language search engine. They are a search company primarily and they have extensive experience with translation software. I expect that a new meta language of Android API commands is being created to match a large number of queries and feed into that translation engine. There is little difference between translating English to French than English to API commands. Both required an understand of natural language and a model of a problem domain. So Google just needs to get a bunch of guys creating Android API scripts for all those features that are needed and then creating the English equivalent for their statistical engine to cross reference. this solves problems 3 & 4. Google has an advantage here unlike Apple that had to have a large number of people build create the mappings. Google already has the mappings and hundred of millions of users updating the knowledge base on an hourly basis. They can use their own search engine to provide the natural language learning with the results selection of the user. So unless Google is totally asleep at the wheel expect them to generate a Siri kill in less than a year.

Why did AT&T need T-Mobile so badly

In 1983 AT&T was broken up because it was seen as an Anti Trust issue. Over the next twenty years technology have turned the industry on its head. A move from Physical Plain Old Telephone (POT) lines using a TDM backbone to a mainly wireless and IP driven backbone. So why do we now have a huge company called AT&T. You can thank Steve Jobs in part because the Iphone gave AT&T a huge edge in competition. If you remember the 1984 Apple commercial, it was like Steve Jobs instead of taking a sledge hammer to the tyrant. Rather Steve walked up to the tyrant and handed him the golden key and got a huge pay off. Now AT&T is loosing the POT market to people going wireless only, it is no longer has the IPhone as a competitive edge. It is faced with a huge problem, with faster wireless data backbones it is just a matter of time that people bypass the Cellular phone network and go directly to VOIP on their cell phones. That why you've seen those unlimited plans since this a preemptive move to stop somebody turning a 2 GB data plan is 2100 minutes of 16kbps compressed VOIP traffic. It's hard to charge a $100 dollars a month when you are using just $30 dollar data plan worth of connectivity. We've seen moves to third party providers such a Cricket or Simple mobile start to drive prices down with competition. A lot of these providers use the T-Mobile and Sprint networks to provide their service. If AT&T can create an oligopoly between itself and Verizon it stands a good chance of blocking the move to the commoditization of wireless services. This will put the USA at a huge competitive disadvantage it the infrastructure that powers the next fifty years of growth is in the hands of a few companies trying to maximize profit by creating an artificial scarcity of wired and wireless data networks. The only real solution to this problem is to break up the vertical integration of both phone and cable companies. Separate the infrastructure from the product by having a matrix of product providers and infrastructure providers to create a low cost generic solution. A product driven by separating the content from the transport providers. A simple calculation is $100 per month two year contact with a $200 iphone is $2,600. A $40 dollar per month plan with a $600 phone is $1,560. You are paying over $1,000 dollars more for that phone given the current system. Can you see why AT&T will spend $39 Billion. With 100 million customers with a $500 premium is $50 billion dollars of profit per year. Why is nobody crying fowl in Washington except the Justice department and FFC. Well AT&T is one of the largest political/lobbyists in the DC area. The fact that AT&T went ahead with a merger so much not in the public good shows how little they thought of the current political system.

Windows 8

I've been using Windows 8 a lot. Corporate America will total ignore this release and given that most large corporations of on a 3 to 5 year upgrade cycle on Windows Desktops and most are still fighting too upgrade from XP to windows 7. Its not surprising, they totally skipped Vista and they will totally skip Windows 8. Microsoft does not care since that's not who this version of Windows is aimed at. Like Vista which was a painful upgrade of the windows internals, windows 8 is another painful upgrade but of the interface. Microsoft has several problems to deal with. The rise of the ARM architecture, the touch interface and the death of the "windows" interface on tablet devices (or still birth). Windows has quotes because I'm talking about the UI style rather than the OS. Tablet are not about multi tasking, or a desktop experience they are about a different model of computing. Tablets have a place in business but not replacing desktops. Laptops yes but not desktops. It will take another generation before these models will co exist happily in the same OS, but remember that Windows Server and Window 7 have the same code base.

Should the saying go "Too Big To Succeed"

I was listening to a horror story on the radio about a family who was foreclosed on by a large bank due to problem with the paper work. By the time the mistakes where discovered the house was horribly damaged due to winter in a unheated home. It seems that we've all been frustrated by dealing with a large companies and it takes 5 or 6 phone calls to resolve a problems not because customer service people are unhelpful bu because they cannot navigate the maze that is the complexities of the company. I keep hearing the phrase "Too Big To Fail", but in many ways it rather seems that they are "To Big To Succeed". When I was in college we learn't about the economies of scale, but we also learned that after a period growth when an organization becomes too big those economies diminish and become negative. From a profit perspective these companies are great, they make more money each year. I'd rather not do business with these huge companies but you often have no choice because consolidation has left so few players in a particular industry that no true free market exists. It seems to me that these companies are succeeding because there is no true free market because there are too few players in the market sector. As a customer I feel like an ant stuck on a huge super tanker in an ocean unable to turn quickly and a large storm is approaching of change. I don't know if I will make it or even the ship will through the storm.

Browsers need another language other than javascript

I've been programming for a long time. I've been programming for over 32 years. I'm saddened by the push for HTML 5. Actually its not HTML5 that upsets me it's Javascript. It's a great technology for putting simple little scripts into your browser but writing large object oriented programs it basically is horrible. It's been done just look at google maps but just look at the ugly code it took. It will push more and more programming to the cloud, which make sense for mobile platforms with the smaller cpu's but it will drive up traffic on the mobile nets. Microsoft/Google/Apple put a modern language (not basic) into a browser so we can efficiently code, sandbox it so bad scripts will not use CPU and memory.

Stop blaming Washington and blame ourselves

You sometimes hear something on the radio that just clicks with you. NPR had that this morning with a segment on which countries are doing well right now and which are doing poorly. I don't agree with all its findings but a clear factor indicator is the US dollar to Canadian dollar. Its pretty much 1=1 right now. There are lots of variables involved and such macro economic indicators put the Canadian dollar so high are complex. Also during a recession you expect the more fiscally conservative to do better. What's interesting is that fiscally conservative countries that are doing so well are socialist. America is capitalist country and at that its doing very well, most corporations have record profit and those that are rich are doing better than they ever have. So if you are a Republican stop complaining about the economy it working for you low taxes, cheaper and abundant labor. If you feel that the recession has hurt you and your voting republican you have to ask yourself why. I'm not saying vote Democrat or for the tea party. But just understand that if you stop thinking and just use rhetoric provided by Political commercials and talk show hosts on both sides of the argument then when we voted the current politicians into office don't expect them to hold any loyalty to you but to those talking heads and their interests. If we stop asking the tough questions and outsourced our think to somebody else don't be surprised when the politicians stop respecting the general public. Don't blame the politicians blame ourselves for not bothering to vote in primaries and understand the issues. Don't expect Washington to respect you if your world focuses on Sports or Hollywood or Talk Radio and the only contact you send to your congressman is a canned email forwarded from a action group based on a 30 second ad. Read/Listen to real news sources guys. If Rush or Fox News tells you how bad the New York Times, Washington Post, the Standard or Economist is he's doing so don't learn the truth and will continue to vote for interests who make them rich.

Celebrity vs Geek

Dennis Ritchie just died. If your not a geek you might not know who that is but he probably more important than Steve Jobs as far as the smart phone you are running or the web page your are viewing. He was not cool, he was not a Billionaire but he was amazing. Its kind of sad that he made just the bottom of the web page of the New York Times while Steve Job dominated it for a week. He invented much of what we use today. Back in the 70's with big iron costing millions of dollars he invented a small flexible operating system called Unix and a programming an equally flexible. That technology is parent or grandparent of IOS, Linux, CPM (which was copied to become Windows). MacOSX. Thanks Mr. Ritchie you were amazing.

Netflix and the stock market

Netflix and the stock market. The CEO of Netflix R. Hastings has been given a panning by investors in the last couple of months. OK they've made some bad decisions and lost a few customers but $304 -> $103 that ridiculous. Clearly $304 was stupid but I imagine when their numbers are finally posted we are not going to a total wipe out I think they will probably still be making money. There only real competition is Hulu and that much more of a disaster given that the only true people who will buy them is blockbuster which is a rebranded Dish Network. If you look at the viewership numbers on Network Television its a disaster HBOGo only real viewership numbers is on few set top boxes. Give it a year or two and Amazon, Blockbuster and Google have spent their war chests on content, HBO, Showtime, Epix and Starz have to start factoring increased streaming costs on their contract renewals. A scared network/film/cable television realizing their viewership is still plummeting then Netflix money will star to look good and Netflix stock price will rebound. It's more a question on what is a stock price and its amazing how fear works.

"Berkeley Blue"

Steve Job was amazing, he annoyed me quite often but I like his iPhone and use one everyday. I often wished I had purchased an Apple II rather than a TRS-80 back in 1979 but in Europe an Apple II was over $1,500 dollars out of the reach of a sixteen year old.

With all that Steve has done it been interesting that we have not mentioned how he got his start.

Even as a teenager he saw a need of how to make cheap phone calls and created a product to meet that need. The blue box. He went from Dorm room to Dorm room selling his device.

Even today we are still trying to find ways to make free phone calls. Aka the OBI110 and Google Voice. I set this combo up at home and it works. He saw a need 40 years ago as "Berkeley Blue" that we are still looking for today. I see a lot of the real Steve Job in that sixteen year old kid rather than the polished image of today. RIP "Berkeley Blue".

Been using windows 8 for a week. It's very different. The metro interface is so window-less but really works. For a developer preview it seems pretty good (Solid, no blue screens or hangs). The only thing I did not like was the sample clock HTML5 web application seemed very high on CPU usage and did not suspend. But its a developer preview so I can't complain. I think that Microsoft has learned a lot over last few years. Still not sold on Javascript/HTML5 but since Microsoft is pushing C++ (they've done some good integration with XMAL.)

Iphone surgery aftermath

Some people have a few parts left over after fixing a car. These are the parts after I fixed my iphone. I keep smashing the screen, luckly its pretty cheap to fix it yourself (<$20).

seussical 2011 musical

IMGP0172, a photo by kariato on Flickr.

My Son in the Seussical Musical

Ocean Sky from Alex Cherney on Vimeo.

Loved this

Nook Color Update

I'd hoped that HoneyComb on the nook would be going places, I was wrong. Deeper Blue is blocked on moving from HC 3.0 to 3.1/3.2 and its a very buggy experience, at least 50% of the market place apps don't work. Deeper Blue did an amazing job but it is clearly not on Googles roadmap to open source the source. I moved to 2.3.3 using CM7, I'm tempted to say down graded but the UX is much better so it clearly an upgrade. HoneyComb is not ready for primetime. CM7 is sweet and makes the nook run as well as the samsung galaxy.

Liberty Smarter Than Nicrosoft

Liberty media is about to buy Barnes & Noble for 1B$ while Microsoft buy skyoe forn 8.5B$. B & N is a good bridge to an online market place and skype does'nt seem like a good fit.

When new media meets old media

I'm in my late 40's so for the television industry I don't exist. But I'm amazed how hard change is for large companies/established industry. Hulu recently made its way to my XBOX and it was kind of sad. First off I'm not what Hulu is aimed at since is advertiser based and seems to have a lot of reality based programming.

Traditional television reminds me of factory farms. You sit at home at a set time and are feed commercials for watching a program. You are the product for the television industry. Recently the farm animals have become annoying. The have decided that will skip the commercial or watch a program when they want. The chickens are in revolt.

Hulu is the industries factory farm for the internet age. Hulu plus is even more of an insult than normal, they place conditions on what you can watch (delays & web only), make you watch commercials and expect you to pay for all the rules. Thanks but no thanks. Netflix has plenty of better programming (my taste) than Hulu, no commercials, no restrictions and the same cost.

What is sad is that television really want young people and they are the people who are not playing by the media company rules. Watching programming on the internet and not in the traditional 30/60 minute format. The twenty something & teens are loosing interest in the traditional model but that who the advertisers want.

The result is that Google will own the advertising market and broadcast TV will become the realm of adult diapers commercials (both actual and figuratively).

Tutorial: Android Application Development - A 9,000 foot overview

Note just to myself

Nook Color

Who thought the first real challenger to the Ipad would come out of the dark. The nook color as quietly been taking the USA by storm. Nearly 3 million units sold by some news stories. I've got a Kindle and my son has the Nook color and they are very different experiences. I've tried to like e-ink and it great in direct sunlight but I want to read a book before I fall asleep in bed and e-ink on my poor old far sighted. E-ink has those led lights but they don't seem to help my eyes. The LCD display is great on the nook and the resolution reminds me of the iphone 4 retina display. Whats even nicer is that the NOOK is very hackable. Honeycomb hacks are available on the net turning the nook into a slow but very usable tablet. Nook default latest release has flash and a few apps. A simple rooted nook can access the android market and alot of applications work. A list of working apps can be found online a nook dev. Amazon is rumored to working with samsung on a stripped/locked down galaxy tab to be branded as a Kindle Tablet. Apple sued Samsung recently I wonder why, a Kindle tablet could seriously attack their Ipad sales, the nook may be hurting their sales already. One problem for the nook color is battery life but I can live with that.

MOG

Finally a music service that is worth the money $5. My CD's are slowly collecting dust and should be stored away in a box. I ripped them to AAC a long time ago but I've finally given up on owning music after experiencing MOG. MOG is simply put amazing. You want to listen to something an 5 seconds later it's playing. I've found a few songs it does not have but 99% of time it's there. I listen to the new Foo Fighters album, then pulled up deadmau5 tracks followed by Dire Straits, Philip Glass, then Carmen. When I think I used to pay $15 for a CD with a couple of tracks which I listened to for a few months and then forgot.

I've heard a lot about cord cutting. I believe it is possible if you are the right person but if you are a sports fan or love a particular live show it not going to happen. I've noticed that the following service are 100% internet based and provide my 360 of services.
1) First netflix is now great. I've got 250 things in my queue and it beats cable.
2) Second Audible: Not only can I get great books but the new york times everyday.
3) NPR has a create web site and the chrome plugin works great.
4) MOG is amazing and provides music well
5) XBOX live works well and provides great gaming
6) ROKU works well with the above services.
7) Itunes for podcasts.
Now most of these services are not free but combined they are lot less than I'm paying for dish.